Monday, April 30, 2007

Draft grades--AFC

Ok guys, I don't know how much time I'm gonna have to get through this, so if this winds up getting cut short, sorry. I'll start with the AFC teams:

  • Buffalo Bills: (A-) Filled needs well in first 2 rounds with Marshawn Lynch (who I like a lot) and Paul Posluszny (A first round talent). Also got good good insurance for J.P Losman (Trent Edwards) in the 3rd. Good value with Wyoming S John Wendling and Boise TE Derek Schouman in the 6th and 7th.
  • Miami Dolphins: (C) This grade will increase significantly if 1. Ginn blossoms as a receiver and 2. John Beck becomes the QB they think he can. Now I like both Ginn and Beck, but I don't know if Beck is as good as Brady Quinn, who they passed over to take Ginn. He is already 26, meaning he's mature, but that also means if he takes 1-2 years to get ready, you don't have as many years as you could've gotten out of Quinn. In the end it worked out, and might turn out great, but it was too big a risk to take. Good value with Utah DT Paul Soliai in the 4th. Got a little insurance for Ronnie Brown in the 3rd with FSU RB Lorenzo Booker, and Hawaii C Samson Satele could turn out to be a monster, if he stays healthy.
  • NE Patriots: (B+) It seems like these guys have 2 1st round picks every year, and they always score. This year, they took risks on 3 'character issue' guys--Miami S Brandon Meriwether in the 1st, Miami DT Kareem Brown in the 4th (both of whom were involved in the UGLY Miami-FIU brawl last season), and Randy Moss, who they got from the Raiders for a 4th rounder. No a lot else jumps out in the 6th and 7th, but Belicheck and Pioli have maybe the best knack for finding starting talent in later rounds. If anyone can corral the personalities of these guys, its Belicheck, Brady and Rodney Harrison. I think Meriwether could blossom under Harrison's tutilege, and if Brady can whip Moss back into his old form, this would raise to an off-the-chart A and bring another Super Bowl to the Pats.
  • NY Jets: (B) They were left with only 4 picks after trading up for Darrelle Revis, but still wound up with a 1st-round LB in the 2nd to team with Jonathan Vilma in Michigan's David Harris. They had their choice of Revis or Leon Hall, so I'll trust their choice there. They didn't add any WR depth, something they needed, until Clemson's Chanci Stuckey in the 7th, but did add an OT, Jacob Bender from small Nicholls St. in the 6th. After a few seasons, he could be there, but needs a lot of development to fit the pro game. Their top 2 picks are among the best 1-2 tandems anyone got in this draft.
  • Baltimore Ravens: (C) They got Auburn's Ben Grubbs, one of the best Gs to come out in several years, who will probably take a starting spot from either Jason Brown or Keydrick Vincent. They needed a Tackle to put opposite Jonathan Ogden, if they didn't want to expose Adam Terry to do so, and they got Iowa's Marshal Yanda for that reason, but I don't know if he's a starter right now. They also needed an OLB to fill the hole left by Adalius Thomas, and I don't think they did that with FIU's Antwan Barnes in the 4th. I'm glad they took Troy Smith in the 5th, though. He's good. Also, KSU's Yamon Figurs will make an instant impact as a returner coming in the 3rd round.
  • Cincinatti Bengals: (C) They got the CB they needed in Leon Hall in the 1st, but adding another Aubrun RB behind Rudi Johnson tells me there's something wrong with former 1st-rounder Chris Perry. If there wasn't they wouldn't waste a 2nd on Irons. They added depth with 2 safeties (TCU's Marvin White in the 4th and ND's Nedu Nkwente in the 7th) but neither wows. And Nevada QB Jeff Rowe in the 5th should have been home state Heisman winner Troy Smith. Both are projects, but I think SMith's upside is much higher and closer to reach.
  • Cleveland Browns: (A+) They got two guys they had in their top 10, plus 2 value corners in the 2nd and 5th. Wisconsin T Joe Thomas and ND QB Brady Quinn will be the foundation of this team for years to come. It cost them next year's 1st rounder, which might hurt, but if Jamal Lewis can run at 75% of what he used to be (a 2,000 yard back), Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow continue to improve, and Joe Jurevicius can give them around 750 yards and 8 TDs behind their improved O-line, they won't be in bad shape at all. After improving their secondary with both UNLV's Eric Wright (1st round talent) and value pickCB Brandon Mcdonald from Memphis in the 5th, if they can find long-term replacements for Ted Washington, Willie McGinest and Jamal Lewis, they could be good for some time. It's not often that a team takes this big a leap in 1 year. Of course, it all comes down to Romeo Crennel's abiltiy to get the best out of each of those guys.
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: (B) New coach Mike Tomlin definitely left his mark on this draft, taking hard-nosed, talented defensive players in FSU LB Lawrence Timmons in the 1st and Michigan DE LaMarr Woodley in the 2nd. Throw in the best punter in the draft (Baylor's Dan Sepulveda) in the 4th and Louisville value CB William Gay in the 5th, and this is a good group of rookies to complement their the rookie coach.
  • Houston Texans: (C) They had to add another D-Lineman to help out last year's unpopular overall 1st pick Mario Williams, and they did that in a big way with 19-yr old Louisville DT Amobi Okoye. If they had added anything else, their draft grade much higher, but reaching for small school Kick returner Jacoby Jones in the 3rd after having no 2nd rounder didn't help. Good value in the 7th with KSU LB Zack Diles. He could add depth to a porous defense in years to come.
  • Indianapolis Colts: (A) The defending Super Bowl champs aren't supposed to be able to draft great guys to fill their needs--that's why the league makes them pick last. However, Tony Dungy and Bill Polian were able to do just that. They got the speedy Ohio St. Rhodes Scholar finalist WR Anthony Gonzalez with the 32nd pick. He will be able to step in immediately to replace departed slot receiver Brandon Stokely, and the offense won't miss a beat. Add Arkansas's athletic freak OT Anthony Ugoh in the 2nd, and they've already done better than most last-pick teams do. Throw in CBs Daymeon Hughes (Cali) and Michael Coe (Alabama St.), both of whom I like a lot, and Gonzalez's fellow Buckeyes DT Quinn Pitcock in the 3rd and WR Roy Hall in the 5th, and you've got more smart, proven winners.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: (C-) They got the guy they wanted in FL safety Reggie Nelson, even after tading down in the 1st. But they didn't add anything good enough to justify the risk of trading down. Small school (Hampton) LB Justin Durant has the physical tools to be great, but he's a reach in the 2nd, when you don't know how those skills will translate against better competition. They took Maryland's Adam Podlesh, whom most had ranked behind Baylor's Dan Sepulveda in the 4th, and some depth in the later rounds, but nothing that stands out.
  • Tennessee Titans: (D) I like Texas S Michael Griffin, but the Titans shouldn't have taken him in the 1st round. They needed a RB or a WR to help out Madden cover-boy QB Vince Young. They did take Arizona RB Chris Henry in the 2nd, but beside having a very unfortunate name at this time for the NFL, he never was productive at AZ. He's athletically amazing, but hasn't proved he could actually put those skills to use. Pairing him with another underacheving back in LenDale White doens't add any scare factor to opposing defenses. A couple of WRs (Fresno's Paul Williams in the 3rd, FL St.'s Chris Davis in the 4th and productive Texas Tech's Joel Filani in the 6th), but none of them would have the impact of say, Tennessee boy Robert Meachem. If I didn't think Griffin was going to be really good, this would be an F.
  • Denver Broncos: (B-) Mike Shanahan has been trying to shore up the D-Line for years now. He got a pair of good DEs in the 1st 2 rounds with FL's Jarvis Moss and Texas's Tim Crowder. Both are quick, high-motor guys. I don't think they needed to trade up to get Moss, though, and that hurt, leaving them only 2 picks in later rounds. They spent those well on ND OT Ryan Harris in the 3rd, who will become another nameless road-grader in Shanahan's O-line progression, and more D-line depth in Moss's FL teammate Marcus Thomas in the 4th. Thomas is another 'character issue' guy and was never great at FL, and will not get a ton of sacks, but he's a good risk/value pick here. They could have used more depth, especially at CB, after the tragic loss of Darrent Williams, and not wasting picks on trading up for Moss, who I think they could've gotten anyway, would have helped them do that.
  • KC Chiefs (B-) They got a good WR which they desperately needed in LSU's Dwayne Bowe, a fast and TOUGH guy. He will have an immediate impact. Still without a solid DT after several years of trying to find one, they continued the search, adding Tennessee's Turk Tyler and NC St's Tank McBride in the 2nd and 3rd. Tyler won't help clog the run much, but he's a quick, intense and nasty guy who could help add toughness and maybe 5 or 6 sacks. I like Tank. In college, he was paired with John McCargo, a 1st-rounder last year, and many said Tank was the better of the two. He fell to them in the third after a slow senior season, but he could help solidify the D-Line. Nothing great in the later rounds, though Louisville RB Kolby Smith (5th round) showed he could be a decent backup after taking over for injured Michael Bush, and he could be the same in the NFL.
  • Oakland Raiders (A-) They took the guy they wanted in Jamarcus Russell #1 overall. I have qualms about him, but if he becomes what he could be, he will be a great cornerstone guy for at least a decade. This draft was much improved by the acquisitions of coach Lane Kiffin's former #1 guy at USC, WR Mike Williams and QB Josh McCown from Detroit for only a 4th round pick. The young and creative Kiffin might be the only guy left who could revive these guys, and I think he has a good shot to do it. At least MCcown will allow them to let Russell develop for a season or 2 before they throw him in. And I know getting rid of one disgruntled WR (Randy Moss) and bringing in another (Williams) seems to be a neutral move, but I think both guys will be better off where they are now. Also, with another 4th round pick, the Raiders added injured Louisville RB Micheal Bush, who, if healthy, could add first round talent and versatility and be an interesting piece in Kiffin's offense. This is a draft of maybes, that could turn out to be monsters--good or bad.
  • SD Chargers: (C-) They reached for both LSU WR Craig Davis in the 1st and Utah S Eric Weddle in the 2nd. Both guys have great potential, but aren't immediate helpers. I guess you don't need to add too much to a team that only lost 2 games last year. This might be harsh, because their biggest needs were at WR and S, but I just don't like these guys as much as some others. They traded up in the 2nd for Weddle, but seeing the short list of needs, should have been willing to give up more to get a guy like FL's Reggie Nelson or Texas's Michael Girffin in the 1st. They did get a decent depth guy in Clemson ILB Anthony Waters in the 3rd, which was also a 'need'.

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